Thoughts on the US Election
When you see breathless headlines about poll results, you can safely ignore them. A poll of a few thousand people on how they would vote tells us who is popular, but it is otherwise meaningless.
There are 538 Electoral College votes. It takes 270 of them to become POTUS (President of the United States). Information about how those votes are likely to go will give us a good idea of who will become the next POTUS.
Nate Silver is the go to guy in making presidential predictions. His blogFiveThirtyEight predicts that Obama will win 307 electoral votes. He's probably right, even though he's licensed his blog to the left-leaning New York Times. Plus his grandfather is a Geologist!
Nate's book The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't is high on my "to read" list. I've been plodding through Sasha Issenberg's The Victory Lab which describes the history of election ground wars and how party resources are distributed to where they can get the most bang for their buck.