Wednesday
Jan202010
Update for a Peak Oil Pessimist
Wednesday, January 20, 2010 at 07:08PM
I know I challenged a few people in Vancouver with my keynote presentation "Do you believe that we are running out of oil?" Peak oil adherents are not interested in any facts that don't support their belief system.
A while back I posted a series of Facebook comments about Wavefront's Powerwave technology. There was a classic forum flame battle leading to some rather jaded comments. My favorite one was this one:
Adaptation by the marketplace is the key sign of success. Call me back when you’re rolling around rich from the stock offering.
The comment was made back in July of 2009. Of course the fellow didn't leave his phone number and he proceeded to complain to the "peak oil" forum about my posts that were answering his numerous questions. I'm sure he felt he was doing the right thing. He was also very wrong. There was adaptation and there was no stock offering. You had to buy shares on the open market at prices around $0.50-0.60 - but you would have made out like a bandit. Being pessimistic can cost you money.
By taking an optimistic view of the the oil supply debate, I can make investments that align with my beliefs. I may be wrong on the Peak Oil debate. Maybe oil production will fall off a cliff and we'll have to relinquish our cars for bicycles and public transit. Maybe there will be crises and mayhem.
However I'm not going to be cheering exploration failures as a confirmation of the Peak Oil theory. I'll be cheering successes that make a difference. After all, optimists live longer and they tend to be happy whether they are rich or poor.
Most importantly for me, I won't be cheering share prices and I will do my best to avoid getting into debates. After all, the other fellow might be right.
A while back I posted a series of Facebook comments about Wavefront's Powerwave technology. There was a classic forum flame battle leading to some rather jaded comments. My favorite one was this one:
Adaptation by the marketplace is the key sign of success. Call me back when you’re rolling around rich from the stock offering.
The comment was made back in July of 2009. Of course the fellow didn't leave his phone number and he proceeded to complain to the "peak oil" forum about my posts that were answering his numerous questions. I'm sure he felt he was doing the right thing. He was also very wrong. There was adaptation and there was no stock offering. You had to buy shares on the open market at prices around $0.50-0.60 - but you would have made out like a bandit. Being pessimistic can cost you money.
By taking an optimistic view of the the oil supply debate, I can make investments that align with my beliefs. I may be wrong on the Peak Oil debate. Maybe oil production will fall off a cliff and we'll have to relinquish our cars for bicycles and public transit. Maybe there will be crises and mayhem.
However I'm not going to be cheering exploration failures as a confirmation of the Peak Oil theory. I'll be cheering successes that make a difference. After all, optimists live longer and they tend to be happy whether they are rich or poor.
Most importantly for me, I won't be cheering share prices and I will do my best to avoid getting into debates. After all, the other fellow might be right.
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