James Hamilton discusses US oil production trends and shows several long term production graphs from localized areas that don't look anything like Hubbert's Peak, although US production in aggregate does.
The paper provides a balanced look at production increases due to geographic expansion (while not ignoring the impact of new technology.)
Hamilton doesn't try to predict the future which I found extremely refreshing.
Q
Hi Mr. Letourneau. We read your blog regularly. We ( my investment club ) were wondering if you would make some regular comments on the oil price. Maybe some comments on the current low price of oil effects on "near-future" supply, production shut downs, exploration, demand destruction stats, etc. I know you are a geologist, but i'm sure you have some ideas and insight into the overall oil picture. We are very bullish, long-term, on oil. We are "peak oil" believers ( maybe you aren't. tell us why we are wrong ). We would appreciate any comments you may have.
Thanks for you time and your blog comment
John T, Victoria
A
Thank you for your comments. I like your suggestion and will be putting some effort into that arena next week. I'm sure many others are interested as well.The short term answer is that USA demand is down and it is adversely affecting WTI prices which have decoupled from the global market as storage at Cushing, Oklahoma is near full. We know China just spent $50 billion to tie up oil supplies so the long term is strong.I'd be interested in your comments... feel free to add them below. Is this is a time/price issue? We know the price is very low but we don't know how long it will take to recover.
Pemex, Mexico’s state-run oil monopoly said Wednesday that its
2008 crude production was down 9.2 percent from 2007. Pemex produced 2.79 million barrels of crude a day in 2008, down from 3.08 million barrels daily in 2007. One of the biggest reasons for the decline is the
rapid depletion of the Cantarell Field.