Jim Letourneau's Blog

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Matt Simmons on Peak Oil

ASPO-USA’s Steve Andrews interviews Matt Simmons, an unapologetic oil bull... still.

If we don’t see a snap-back in prices for three to six to nine months, we should start preparing ourselves for a very large loss in supply, and brace ourselves for a shortage, unless suddenly demand does start to plunge, which so far it hasn’t done.  If oil prices just stay unchanged for 18 months, or just bounce around with no confidence, then the industry will say, “Oh, that was a mistake, we need to start drilling!”  The lag time in getting started is another 18 months.  In 30 months, we could find crude oil supply-which was 72.2 million barrels a day in the fourth quarter, according to EIA estimates-down to 66.5 million b/d, with worst case at 59.6 mb/d.  That’s obviously an utter catastrophe.

Part 1

Part 2

A tip o' the hat to Burns Cheedle of the Canadian Petroleum Geoscience Network