Jim Letourneau's Blog

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Natural Gas Outlook

Paul Wells of the Daily Oil Bulletin polls the experts for their natural gas outlook:

  • What little momentum remains in natural gas supply as a result of 2007 capital spending programs and high grading prospects is likely winding down, with the end result being large supply reductions in 2008 and 2009.

  • The modest year-to-date declines for Western Canada natural gas supply appears likely to accelerate in the months ahead, as the industry looks at the end of capital spending programs for 2007, and what could be an even worse 2008 in terms of softer spending - Martin King, First Energy Capital

  • You end up with impacts and affects moving into 2008, 2009, 2010 because at that timeframe, where are the big bumps of gas going to come from? When you look into the mid-term, and by that I mean two to five years, we're setting up for substantially higher (natural gas) prices I believe. - Rick DeWolf, DeWolf Consulting Ltd. 

  • CERI's research indicates that the initial productive rate (average rate for the first year of production) from new wells has decreased from 173 mcf per day in 1999 to 117 mcf per day in 2005.

  • Or, to put it another way, assuming that any new wells continue to produce at lower and lower rates, any curtailment in drilling activity either as a result of soft gas prices or as a result of the new (provincial) royalty program will lead to a decline in the output from the WCSB. - Peter Howard, senior research director for the Canadian Energy Research Institute (CERI)