Jim Letourneau's Blog

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Looming Limits

Bill Newman of Research Capital points out the potential for a peak in production...

Wall Street Journal - Oil Officials See Limit Looming on Production

  • Many top oil
      executives are predicting a global oil production plateau of 100
      million bbl/d by 2012.


  • Global production
      is restricted not by reserves, but by access to reserves, increasing
      costs and limited labour force.


  • High oil prices are
      promoting non conventional oil production, such as oil sands or oil shale, but
      these projects take time to develop and are expensive.


  • Mature oil fields
      are declining.  At least 4 million bbl/d of new production is
      needed just to keep production flat, every year.

The evidence for
peak oil or the plateau global oil production seems to be mounting.  If it
materializes then today's current record high oil prices will look like a
bargain. To capitalize on the potential for record high oil
prices we recommend buying oil weighted producers.  We
recommend buying Winstar for its near term production growth of long
life light oil assets in Tunisia.  Buy Pan Orient for its light oil
production growth from a potential large oil filed located
onshore Thailand, and buy Antrim for its North Sea oil
production expected to be approximately 30,000 bbl/d by mid to late