Jim Letourneau's Blog

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Commodity Bust?

Tom McFeat’s column Has the commodity boom turned to bust? outlines the bear case for commodities. As with most things related to speculation, time frame is of critical importance.

As of Sept. 15, the futures price of crude was dipping below $63 US a barrel. But oil was at more than $78 US a barrel just two months ago.

We could also say that oil was under $20/bbl in 2002. What a run!!!

The view from Dennis Gartman is informative:

"We are therefore beginning to wonder aloud if the multi-year commodity bull market that so many of our friends have adhered to has thus come to an end? We think not, for we do indeed think that Jim Rogers' thesis is the correct one; that the commodity market bull market is indeed a multi-decade circumstance and that the current weakness is just a very good and very much needed shaking-out of the 'Funds' and individuals who've gotten far too involved, far too quickly, with far too readily available profits having been granted to them, and that this process needs to be unwound before the next leg upward can begin in earnest. As is always the case in such things, it ends always in tears."

I’m sticking with the “big picture”… they aren’t laying off geologists yet!

CBC News - Analysis: Tom McFeat.