Multi-year bull markets are characterized by ebbs and flows in the conviction by market participants. Last week crude oil put in an interim top at US$60.54 that has the Financial Post's technical analyst, Don Vialoux urging investors to take profits.

Meanwhile, a recent Globe and Mail piece by Angela Barnes "Analyst foresees oil prices holding" indicates high prices are here to stay.

Mixed signals are often present in the financial press. One of the main reasons is the absence of a time frame in the commentary. Back in December I posted a series of oil price charts that nicely illustrated the different interpretations based on varying time frames. It is important to know your time frame. Are you looking out 1, 2, 5 or 15 years?

The "big picture" bull market for oil is very solid. The Energy Use per Capita chart from Paul Kedrosky (of Infectious Greed) is instructive. India and China's energy consumption levels could easily triple if their economies continue to grow. This is one of the "big picture" trends to keep your eye on if you are a long term investor.


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