Quantcast

Jim Letourneau's Blog

Investing, Technology, Travel, Geology, Music, Golf. I think that covers it.

Conspiracy Theories

I am always interested in a good conspiracy conspiracy theory. They encourage us to look at the world in a different way. Speculators need to look at the world in a different way in order to stay ahead of the crowd. Having an open mind is important because all speculators are going to be wrong a good percentage of the time.

It takes practice to develop contrarian thinking. If you are right eventually people will agree with you and then you have to resist the urge to change your opinion to be contrarian again even though you are right. Basically its a battle of wits with ample opportunity for great blunders to be made. That's where risk management comes in.

Today's conspiracy theory comes from Russia. Two Russian airliners crashed simultaneously killing 89 people. The odds of this happening through random chance are extremely slim. It is a great tragedy and the true cause may never be known. As a starting point it is a good idea to not believe what you hear from official sources. Sometimes they have a vested interest in maintaining the illusion of control during potentially volatile events. The current official version is that there is "no evidence of terrorism" from initial investigations at the crash sites.

Maybe, maybe not.

The DEBKAfile is a great site for getting alternative views of Mideast and world events. They seem pretty confident that terrorism was involved. Frankly I don't know what to believe but I'll be less surprised by the newsflow on this event now that I have considered a range of possibilities.

An example of how to apply this kind of analysis is asking questions like "why would a potential act of terrorism on a major US ally not cause the price of oil or gold to go up?".